Last week’s GCSE results paint a clear picture for the new Labour government, with the entrenched disadvantage gap continuing to grow. In 2019, the groundbreaking Youth Jobs Gap by youth charity Impetus, found young people who did not achieve a grade 4 in English and maths GCSE were twice as likely to be not in education, employment or training (NEET) as those with five GCSEs. Worse still, better-off young people were only half as likely to be low qualified, compared with their worse-off peers. This should not take away from the pupils who, against the odds, have managed to complete their exams, having started secondary school the year of the COVID pandemic. However, for policymakers, it must be a call to action to safeguard the 200,000 16-year-olds who did not achieve grade 4 in English and maths GCSE, and are now at increased risk of being NEET.

The results come at a time when NEET rates are already alarmingly high - a long term challenge in the UK. The newest statistics released last week saw the number of NEET young people aged 16 to 24 years rise to 872,000 between April and June 2024, up from 798,000 the previous year and equivalent to a staggering 1 in 8 young people. This problem is not uniform; it disproportionately affects the most marginalised, including young people from disadvantaged backgrounds, ethnic minority young people, care-experienced young people and those with special educational needs and disabilities. Young people from Black Caribbean backgrounds currently face a NEET rate 2.3 times higher than their White British peers, while those with experience of the care system are three and a half times more likely to be NEET than their non care-experienced peers. Geographical cold spots also persist - while the North East of England suffers from the highest regional NEET rate at 15%, the South West has a rate of 9.4%.

In trying to understand the reasons behind this, the picture becomes increasingly grim. The number of young people who are out of work due to ill health has doubled from 93,000 in 2013 to 190,000 in 2023, with much of this attributed to mental ill health. In the 2023 Youth Voice Census young people report a growing sense of disengagement as they continued to report high levels of anxiety and worry, with 40.5% of young people citing anxiety as one the biggest barriers to finding a job and only 12.4% of young people believing that there are quality opportunities where they live.

Meanwhile, avenues into work such as apprenticeships have seen sharp drops in participation, with uptake amongst young people aged below 24 falling by some 20% since 2017. Skills shortages - particularly digital and technological - are also becoming a key driver of youth unemployment, with education and training not keeping up with a rapidly evolving labour market. Indeed, last year, the Institute for Employment Studies found lack of skills (42 per cent) to be the foremost obstacle that young people face to accessing good quality employment. Meanwhile, the King's Trust found one in three (37 per cent) young people across the UK are worried they do not have the digital skills to get a good job.

The implications of being NEET can reverberate throughout young people’s lives. Spending time unemployed under the age of 23 has been linked to lower wages even twenty years on, and those who are NEET between the ages of 18 to 19 are 20% more likely to be unemployed even ten years later. Young people who are NEET are over-represented in substance misuse and criminal and anti-social behaviour, and show a heightened risk of later-life homelessness. The link between employment and health is also well established, with unemployed people more than five times as likely to have poor health than employees. Indeed, in 2021, young people classed as NEET were almost twice as likely to have a health problem than the overall 16-24 population (46.7% compared with 24.5%). Implications for the economy are also stark. In 2022, the Government’s Digital Strategy estimated the skills gap to cost the UK economy some £63 billion per year in lost potential GDP, rising to an estimated £120 billion a year by 2030.

Against this backdrop, the Labour government’s pledge of a ‘Youth Guarantee’ - for 18-21 year olds to have access to training, an apprenticeship, or support to find work – is a step in the right direction. Last year, the Youth Employment Group (YEG) - a coalition of over 300 youth employment charities - estimated that UK GDP could increase by £69 billion if NEET rates were reduced to the levels seen in the Netherlands. Moreover, the Health Foundation reports 49.4% of people who are employed consider their health very good or excellent, compared with only 28.1% of unemployed people. The benefits of reducing the NEET rate - particularly amongst young people – go right to the heart of the Labour government’s 'missions’ - economic growth, safer streets, health inequality and breaking down barriers to opportunity.

There is also widespread public support for a reduction in youth unemployment, a further incentive for the Labour government to commit the necessary resource to delivering their Youth Guarantee. YEG polling conducted in 2023 indicates that 74% of voters believe reducing youth unemployment will support health and well-being, and 73% think it will improve the economy. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of voters also believe that tackling youth unemployment will help to make their local community safer.

The new government’s Youth Guarantee therefore has the opportunity to be the golden thread running through their vision for the next five years of government – but it needs to deliver. We were pleased to see the government’s Guarantee partially adopt the YEG’s Young Person’s Guarantee. Launched in 2023 and based on successful interventions from across the world, the YEG’s set of proposals provide the foundation for an impactful policy programme to shift the dial for young people.

Our hope is that the full Young Persons Guarantee aids the Labour Government in creating a wider roadmap, focused on real ‘systems change’ with sensible policy integration and the young person front of mind. First off, there is opportunity to ensure join-up between the new Young Futures Hubs and existing DWP Youth Hubs (with a recent Demos report showing the real potential of the latter intervention). Join-up across Government at the highest level is a necessity, and this should be firmly on the agenda of the cross-government ‘growth mission’ and ‘opportunity mission’. Moreover, we hope the government will look to extend the age range of its guarantee from 21 to 24, ensuring that young people in their early twenties – a crucial transition period – do not fall out of the system. Finally, we know evaluation and evidence is essential. There is enormous political will for this across local and combined authorities, who are innovating and testing interventions, to find what works. Combined with the government’s devolution agenda, this innovation presents an invaluable opportunity to learn and share best practice.

The potential of a Youth Guarantee is perhaps best illuminated through the eyes of a young person.

Julian was struggling with depression, causing him to quit college, when he was referred to Resurgo charity’s employment programme, Spear. Through coaching, Spear aims to equip young people with the mindset and skills they need to secure work and succeed. Speaking at Resurgo’s celebration evening, Julian was noticed by Stuart Boseley - co-founder of Best Insurance - who was so impressed by the trainee’s confidence, that he decided to offer him an interview. Julian eventually secured a job, and through Resurgo’s Spear programme realised ‘anything is possible’.

The Labour government’s Youth Guarantee could mean Julian’s story is replicated across the country, transforming the lives of hundreds of thousands of young people, while paving the way towards a healthier, safer and more prosperous Britain.

This article was written by the Co-Chairs of the Youth Employment Group (YEG). The YEG exists to ensure that there is a quality employment, education or training pathway for all young people, in particular the most marginalised.