December 2024 update: Education Policy Institute researchers Allen Joseph and Whitney Crenna-Jennings have been awarded the Office for National Statistics Impact of Analysis Award, recognising "research in an ONS managed data service that has had a significant impact on the public good."
New report finds that young people suspended during secondary school are twice as likely to be out of education, employment or training by age 24
Pupils suspended at least once during secondary school are also less likely to achieve Level 3 qualifications or attend university
A new report published by the Education Policy Institute, commissioned by youth education charity Impetus, has identified a ‘suspension employment gap’ with young people who are suspended at secondary school experiencing a range of poorer outcomes in late adolescence and early adulthood.
The report finds that compared to pupils who are not suspended, pupils suspended at least once during secondary school are:
- 2.1 times as likely to not achieve Level 3 qualifications by age 19
- 1.6 times as likely to not attend higher education by age 24
- 2.0 times as likely to not be in sustained education, employment or training at age 24
- 2.5 times as likely to receive out-of-work benefits by age 24
- 2.7 times as likely to receive health-related benefits by age 24
Pupils’ attainment at GCSE plays a significant role in the relationship between suspension and outcomes. Factors contributing to suspensions, as well as suspensions themselves, may have influenced GCSE performance, which in turn is related to outcomes in adulthood.
In other words, the association between suspension and outcomes in adulthood may be indirect, accounted for by lower GCSE grades which limit opportunities for higher study.
The new research builds on a previous report published in March by the EPI and Impetus, which found a ‘suspension grades gap’, showing young people experiencing suspension are less likely to pass crucial Maths and English GCSEs than their peers.
Today’s research includes a new analysis of state welfare use by young people who have experienced suspension, exploring the receipt of out-of-work benefits and health-related benefits by age 24, using new data linking pupils' education and state-welfare records.
Although the analysis cannot distinguish between the impact of the behaviour leading to the suspension and the suspension itself, addressing the root causes of suspension through a focus on early intervention will likely be key to improving outcomes for these young people.
Allen Joseph, Researcher in Early Years, Inequalities and Wellbeing at the Education Policy Institute, said:
Our latest analysis shows that pupils who are suspended during secondary school are not only less likely to achieve good grades at GCSE but also tend to have poorer education, occupation, and health outcomes in adult life.
"Given these poor individual-level outcomes and wider societal costs, it is imperative that schools, colleges, and wider services are adequately resourced to address the circumstances and respond to the behaviour that resulted in the suspension.
“In order to inform more effective interventions that can alter the poorer long-term trajectories experienced by these young people, future research should seek to better understand how to respond to behaviour in a way that reflects the evidence on in-school and out-of-school drivers, how to best support pupils who receive multiple suspensions, and the factors driving the recent rise in the use of suspensions.
Carlie Goldsmith, Senior Policy Advisor at Impetus said:
While it is not a surprise that suspended pupils get worse outcomes, we now know how much worse these outcomes are, and can put a number on the “employment grades gap” for the first time.
"Suspensions are sometimes necessary, however, given the long-term consequences for both the individual and to wider society, supporting pupils who are struggling to engage in mainstream education, and in particular making sure they achieve crucial GCSEs, must be a priority for government.
"We should aim for lower exclusion levels not simply for the sake of it, but because it would be a sign of a more effective education system for pupils and teachers alike.
Key findings:
- Outcomes in early adulthood for pupils who are during secondary school suspended are poor. Compared to pupils who are not suspended, pupils suspended at least once during secondary school are:
- 2.1 times as likely to not achieve Level 3 qualifications by age 19.
- 1.6 times as likely to not attend higher education by age 24.
- 2.0 times as likely to not be in sustained education, employment or training at age 24.
- 2.5 times as likely to receive out-of-work benefits by age 24.
- 2.7 times as likely to receive health-related benefits by age 24.
- Pupils with multiple suspensions have poorer outcomes in early adulthood and multiple suspensions tend to be cumulatively associated with poor early adult outcomes. The table below shows how the risk of different early adulthood outcomes increases with a higher number of suspensions:
- Pupils suspended ten or more times appear to have just as poor, if not poorer, outcomes compared to those who experience permanent exclusion. The table below shows the proportion of pupils achieving a given outcome by school exclusion status:
Policy recommendations:
- Given the long-term consequences for the individual and the wider costs to society of suspension during secondary school, there is an urgent need for early intervention to address the factors leading to suspension. The Department for Education (DfE) should consider conducting a programme of work which sets out how to best respond to behaviour that reflects the evidence on in-school and out-of-school drivers. These programmes should be monitored and evaluated to ensure that they are effective.
- The DfE should develop the evidence base on what works to support pupils who experience multiple suspensions.
Existing guidance provides little direction on how to effectively support pupils experiencing repeated suspensions beyond a recommendation to implement "additional strategies". This lack of guidance is concerning, given that the number of pupils in secondary school experiencing one or more suspensions is increasing, the risk of negative outcomes grows with the number of suspensions, and the outcomes for students with multiple suspensions can be as poor as, if not poorer than, those for permanently excluded pupils.
- Future research should continue to better understand the causes of suspensions and permanent exclusions. Researchers should continue to explore quasi-experimental methods that mimic random allocation to suspension from the perspective of the pupil, including changes in behaviour policies (e.g. local authority boundary changes, governing structure changes, etc.), to add to the growing body of literature on the causal effects of suspension and permanent exclusion. More research is also needed to understand the possible drivers of the recent rise in the number of suspensions, including worsening mental health among young people, in order to inform more effective interventions to address the circumstances that lead to suspension.
- Future research should also aim to understand outcomes for the peers of pupils who are suspended. Much research has focused on the outcomes for pupils who are excluded rather than those of their peers. Whilst the effects of disruptive behaviour on peers have been widely discussed, to our knowledge, no research has yet empirically explored or quantified this effect in an English context.
- Future research should also explore protective factors that enable some suspended pupils to succeed in later life.
Although suspended pupils on average experience poorer outcomes, it is worth acknowledging that some do go on to achieve favourable results. Studies could investigate the individual (e.g. motivation), family (e.g. support for learning), school (e.g. inclusive approaches), and community (e.g. access to early intervention) characteristics that contribute to more positive outcomes for the pupils who experience them. Understanding these protective factors could inform more effective interventions and support to improve long-term outcomes for at-risk pupils.
